The predictive value of early "exposure" camps... how the 1st "phenoms" did as frosh

[dtrain34]

Back in the summer of 2005 many, including myself, doubted the purpose of a so-called exposure camp being held for girls who had not yet entered sixth grade. No college coaches could or would watch and surely the talents of kids that young would wax and wane over the coming years. No way were all the best players in the land there; girls who had not yet taken up the game could come along later and surpass those gathered in San Diego for the first so-called "jr. phenom camp" for girls. However, generally speaking, the 20 girls selected to play in the Class of 2012 All-Star Game at Alliant University that August held up well remarkably well this year as high school freshman.

Below -- in bold -- is the data on the 20 all-stars as it was published then in the order in which the girls were ranked at the time, with notes on their 2012 accomplishments in regular type (a few my research turned up nothing on, if there any additions or corrections anyone can make, please let me know):

1. Keitra Wallace, 5-7, C, Bloomington, CA. Now a 5-11 forward with California's top high school team, Brea Olinda; in the regular rotation and averaging four points, three rebounds and 1.6 steals per game on one of the best teams in the nation. On Hoopgurlz state list.

2. Devon Brookshire, 5-6, C, Rancho Palos Verdes, CA. Now a high-scoring mainstay of the traditionally strong team at Bishop Montgomery in Torrance.

3. Jordan Adams, 5-3, PG, Irvine, CA. Now a 6-0 freshman guard at Southern California D-II runner-up Mater Dei and perhaps the most highly-touted recruit thus far in the Class of 2012 thanks to her play for the Monarchs and early attendance at a Nike Skills Academy. On Hoopgurlz 100.

4. Ariana Wilson, 5-4, PF, Temecula, CA.

5. Tia Dixon, 5-5, WF, San Diego, CA. Now a 5-6 prep guard, nailed 74 three-pointers on her way to averaging 16.8 points, 5 assists, 3 rebounds and 3 steals per game for 23-8 San Diego High this season.

6. Haley Hatcher, 5-2, 2G, Little Rock, AR. Now a 5-7 point for Central Arkansas Christian and continues to be a big scorer in AAU competition. On Hoopgurlz state list.

7. Kelcey Castro, 5-3, PF, Fairlawn, NJ. A starter and long-range scorer for Immaculate Concepcion High School in Jersey.

8. Taylor Spears, 5-5, WF, Fullerton, CA. Now a 5-8 guard and Adams' team mate on that strong Mater Dei team. On the Hoopgurlz 100.

9. Olivia Callaway, 5-8, C, Corona, CA.

10. Antoinette Bannister, 5-6, PF, Jacksonville, FL. Now a 5-10 Hoopgurlz 100 sensation for powerful Potter's House Christian, racking up just under 20 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 steals per game as the Lions finished 37-3.

11. Christina Johnson, 5-4, WF, Temecula, CA. Now a 5-9 forward at Great Oak High School, averaged 4.9 ppg for the 19-8 Wolfpack.

12. Rachel Theriot, 5-0, 2G, Berea, OH. Now a 5-9 guard for Walsh Jesuit, averaged 11.3 points, 4 assists, 4 rebounds and 3 steals as the Warriors finished 19-7 and among Ohio's top 20 teams.

13. Kelsey Minato, 4-10, PG, Huntington Beach, CA. Now a 5-8 guard for Huntington Beach High, averaged 10 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists and two steals as the Oilers finished 20-8. On Hoopgurlz state list.

14. Larkin Hatcher, 4-11, PG, Little Rock, AR. Now a 5-4 guard, plays alongside her twin for Central Arkansas Christian. On Hoopgurlz state list.

15. Katherine Giddens, 5-8, PF, Rancho Palos Verdes, CA. Now a 6-1 forward for Palos Verdes High, she averaged 6 points and 4 rebounds for the Sea Kings.

16. Chloe Pavlech, 5-6, 2G, Loveland, OH. Now playing at Sycamore High School, she averaged 7.5 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists as the Aviators finished 17-4.

17. Sasha Weber, 5-1, 2G, Lacey, WA. Now a 5-11 combo guard for Timberline High School, averaged 14.3 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals to lead the Blazers to their first post-season appearance in eight years. On Hoopgurlz state list.

18. Christie Cates, 4-11, 2G, Indianapolis, IN. Now a 5-3 guard for Cathedral High School, she is among the Metro Indianapolis leaders for three-point shooting and assists, while averaging 7.7 points per game.

19. Kayla Seymour, 4-10, PG, Cary, NC. Playing for North Raleigh High School.

20. Brittany Webb, 4-10, 2G, Whiteland, IN. Now a 5-3 point for Heritage Christian, she contributed 2.5 points and 1.3 assists to an Eagles team that lost just once in 27 games and was ranked third in the state of Indiana.

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[arbitraryj]

There has been great research recently into the jr. phenom sports phenom.

In a nutshell (or eggshell as it were) those kids that show early advantage on the court are the same kids who are then offered higher level exposure to better coaching and skill building (read: invite to phenom camp).

Higher level exposure to better coaching and skill building results in showing more advantage on the court.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat. & add Hypeman accordingly.

The insight and tragedy (from the perspective of this sports junkie) is that they are often the players who are born earlier in the year (Jan-Apr) and get a few more weeks of growth and development (read: coordination) on the rest of the anklebitters.

Any anklebitter phenom born Sept-Dec would truly be a kid that beat the odds.

The million dollar question is are these players offered the high level of skill building and quality instruction because they are phenoms OR are they phenoms because they are offered high level of skill building and quality instruction?

-and how many jr phenoms with equal or higher potential are weeded out of the phenom pool because they weren't standouts in skill or height at the tender age of eight (or I think its seven here in the DMV)

The stats about these recruits would be more revealing to see birth month listed alongside HS or club team info in the HoopGurlz100 (yo Glenn, PROJECT!!!)

Hey, ESPN is on this research already. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=merron/081208

Check out the Page 2 Study tabulating birth months of the NHL players from this season who were born from 1980 to 1990. 58.2% of these players were born in the first half of the year. With 31.4% born between Jan-Mar.

great book by Gladwell btw. yes, all of them.

-Board Challenge: now that you know, what are you going to change about the way you approach youth sports?

[dtrain34]

Great response, prompting a couple more thoughts:

The birth month thing is interesting... I also have some experience with youth track and field and it is definitely a killer there. A December birthday and you are running uphill every year. The USATF divides the competition into two year spans and if you are a late in the year kid you are like a "first year" all the time. The organization tries to give the advantage back by allowing 19 year olds with late birthdays to compete at the final "young man/woman" level but by then, the summer after high school, how many are really interested?

It's funny you made the comment about the kids who get exposed early fasttracking to high level coaching and competition from that day forward. No doubt true in some cases, but I also know that a kid and her parents have to make a concious decision to pursue that.... for example, if you believe in attending the neighborhood high school and not in shopping your daughter to the various local prep powers you can find your kid back in the "second tier" because she doesn't routinely play at State. The good player on an average high school team is often viewed as missing something no matter what gifts they were born with or what camps or AAU teams they affiliate themselves with.

Ultimately you hope college coaches are smart enough to see talent wherever it may be, but you'll note that not all those 2005 "phenoms" are playing for the Breas of the world. Those who do not end their seasons in one NBA arena or the other probably will not work their way onto any junior national teams anytime soon.

[quedash]

dtrain34,

Track and field is a passion of mine, and you are correct about how your birth month can work for or against you. My son regularly goes to AAU nationals and wins multiple medals, and has won a national championship, and owns several meet records at major meets- his birth month is January. My daughter goes to AAU nationals and wins medals, but her times or distances aren't likely to win her a national championship, her birth month is September. On the other hand in Savannah, GA she had to wait an extra year to start school due to her birthday being after Sept. 1st. This year she will start playing summer ball along with her track schedule and spend more time in the gym over the summer. Both of them want to earn a college scholarship playing basketball since that is their first love. They both spent time in the gym last summer, but not as much as they should have due to the bad timing of their school track season. This summer they both realize they have to step it up in the gym to take the next step in achieving their dream..

[bballdad2]

dtrain, tough job compiling the data on the 2005 campers. How about the girls that were in the 2008 Phenom camp, how did they do in their freshman year? Who were the all-stars from that most recent camp and how well did they do?

[dtrain34]

One set is enough! I got all caught up this year in following the freshman class in my own area and then thought back to the "phenom" deal, so spent some time on that after seeing Keitra Wallace on cable in the California championship game and Jordan Adams on the front page of hoopgurlz that same day. Thanks to MaxPreps and google it wasn't that tough to do, but I'll leave any follow up to others.