Final 4_2009_Again

[Sam]

Before things degenerated into a UConn vs Rutgers shouting match, I thought that FHIRE had asked a question that merited some serious consideration - namely, who do you expect to be in the 2009 Final Four. The question is particularly interesting because the graduation of the 2008 class will seriously re-contour the college basketball landscape, opening opportunities for some new blood. Even if the teams stay largely the same, the individual stars will certainly be new. So to return the question, here are my thoughts.

In assessing the potential final four teams for 2009, it is interesting to first note that each of the teams in the 2008 Final Four had a player who either won a national college player of the year award, or received significant votes for one. While this is not always the case, it does make a strong argument for the need for at least one, elite level player if your favorite team is to make it to the big dance. Having said that, here's my assessment of the final four candidates for 2009.

Tennessee - With the graduation of the entire starting five from their national championship team, Tennessee returns only two players who were not true freshmen in 2008 and one of those has not played a game in the past year. With another number one recruiting class, Summitt has expressed confidence that "the cupboard is not bare". Unfortunately, all she has at the moment is a cupboard full of ingredients while most everyone else already has a cake in the oven. Since they are likely to lose a few games while this team matures, their seeding will not be as favorable as in the past. The Sweet 16 may be viewed as a Tennessee birthright, but it's likely to be the end of the ride in 2009.

Stanford - The loss of Wiggins to graduation is a significant blow, yet Stanford returns as much talent and experience as any team in the country and the addition of Ogwumike and Boothe will soften the loss of Wiggins. If they had trouble handling backcourt pressure with Wiggins, I don't see how they'll do much better without her, but they should still be good enough to make the final four….just not good enough to win it all.

Connecticut - UConn graduated four very talented young ladies, but Houston spent much of her career in the doghouse and Hunter spent hers on the training table. What I like about Connecticut is that they have a nice distribution of talent among all of the returning classes, they are adding top notch talent with their incoming freshmen and, of course, they have Maya Moore and the rest of us don't. The Huskies should be heavy favorites to win it all.

LSU - LSU's string of consecutive Final Fours will come to an abrupt end when they run headlong into the brick wall called "graduation". They've taken a graduation hit that is harder even than Tennessee's and while they have a great, incoming class of freshmen, they won't have matured enough by March to make another Final Four.

Rutgers - Significant graduation losses (Ajavon and Carson) will be more than offset by the junior and senior classes which are both talented and experienced. The addition of a top notch recruiting class will help fill in the gaps. Assuming that they aren't bracketed with UConn, Rutgers should be a final four team, and might even make an all Big East championship game.

Maryland - The graduation of Harper and Langhorne is tough, but Maryland has a strong class of returning seniors that should keep them competitive. The addition of freshman Lynetta Kizer should bolster the inside game while senior Kristi Toliver will be about as good as there is at the guard position. The tournament draw may decide which ACC team makes the final four, but I'm betting it will be Maryland.

UNC - UNC will have a talented sophomore class, but the graduation of Larkins and Pringle will be too much to overcome and the incoming freshmen will not be good enough to make up the difference. No Final Four for this team.

Texas A & M - A & M has been steadily advancing up the tourney rungs for the last four years, reaching the elite eight in 2008. They seem poised to take the next step, but it's a big one. The difference between the elite eight and the final four is often a single elite player and I'm just not sure that I see that player on this team. I'll think they'll be a bridesmaid again, but if anyone could pull off an upset, it might be this team.

Other Teams of note:

Oklahoma - Three years of Courtney Paris and OK still hasn't made it past the sweet sixteen. I expect that there are a lot of folks posting to the Hoopgurlz website who believe they could have coached CP to the sweet sixteen with their eyes shut. Oklahoma's best hope for 2009 is that graduation will bring the rest of the field back to them. Graduation will help, but not that much, and OK will still fall short of a Final Four.

Duke - Duke has all of the ingredients for a Final Four team - minimal graduation losses (Wanisha Smith and Emily Waner), a well balanced group of talented returning lettermen and a strong incoming class of freshmen. On the other hand, that's pretty much what they had this year when they were bounced in the sweet sixteen. This team has elite level talent, but I don't know that the coaching is strong enough to carry them beyond the round of eight.

So that's it - UConn, Rutgers, Stanford and Maryland. Feel free to jump in and offer other insights, but if you have nothing more to offer than predictions of your favorite team being undefeated forever, maybe you should just grab a cold beer and chill out for a while.

[BrooklynSaints]

Before things degenerated into a UConn vs Rutgers shouting match, I thought that FHIRE had asked a question that merited some serious consideration - namely, who do you expect to be in the 2009 Final Four. The question is particularly interesting because the graduation of the 2008 class will seriously re-contour the college basketball landscape, opening opportunities for some new blood. Even if the teams stay largely the same, the individual stars will certainly be new. So to return the question, here are my thoughts.

In assessing the potential final four teams for 2009, it is interesting to first note that each of the teams in the 2008 Final Four had a player who either won a national college player of the year award, or received significant votes for one. While this is not always the case, it does make a strong argument for the need for at least one, elite level player if your favorite team is to make it to the big dance. Having said that, here's my assessment of the final four candidates for 2009.

Tennessee - With the graduation of the entire starting five from their national championship team, Tennessee returns only two players who were not true freshmen in 2008 and one of those has not played a game in the past year. With another number one recruiting class, Summitt has expressed confidence that "the cupboard is not bare". Unfortunately, all she has at the moment is a cupboard full of ingredients while most everyone else already has a cake in the oven. Since they are likely to lose a few games while this team matures, their seeding will not be as favorable as in the past. The Sweet 16 may be viewed as a Tennessee birthright, but it's likely to be the end of the ride in 2009.

Stanford - The loss of Wiggins to graduation is a significant blow, yet Stanford returns as much talent and experience as any team in the country and the addition of Ogwumike and Boothe will soften the loss of Wiggins. If they had trouble handling backcourt pressure with Wiggins, I don't see how they'll do much better without her, but they should still be good enough to make the final four….just not good enough to win it all.

Connecticut - UConn graduated four very talented young ladies, but Houston spent much of her career in the doghouse and Hunter spent hers on the training table. What I like about Connecticut is that they have a nice distribution of talent among all of the returning classes, they are adding top notch talent with their incoming freshmen and, of course, they have Maya Moore and the rest of us don't. The Huskies should be heavy favorites to win it all.

LSU - LSU's string of consecutive Final Fours will come to an abrupt end when they run headlong into the brick wall called "graduation". They've taken a graduation hit that is harder even than Tennessee's and while they have a great, incoming class of freshmen, they won't have matured enough by March to make another Final Four.

Rutgers - Significant graduation losses (Ajavon and Carson) will be more than offset by the junior and senior classes which are both talented and experienced. The addition of a top notch recruiting class will help fill in the gaps. Assuming that they aren't bracketed with UConn, Rutgers should be a final four team, and might even make an all Big East championship game.

Maryland - The graduation of Harper and Langhorne is tough, but Maryland has a strong class of returning seniors that should keep them competitive. The addition of freshman Lynetta Kizer should bolster the inside game while senior Kristi Toliver will be about as good as there is at the guard position. The tournament draw may decide which ACC team makes the final four, but I'm betting it will be Maryland.

UNC - UNC will have a talented sophomore class, but the graduation of Larkins and Pringle will be too much to overcome and the incoming freshmen will not be good enough to make up the difference. No Final Four for this team.

Texas A & M - A & M has been steadily advancing up the tourney rungs for the last four years, reaching the elite eight in 2008. They seem poised to take the next step, but it's a big one. The difference between the elite eight and the final four is often a single elite player and I'm just not sure that I see that player on this team. I'll think they'll be a bridesmaid again, but if anyone could pull off an upset, it might be this team.

Other Teams of note:

Oklahoma - Three years of Courtney Paris and OK still hasn't made it past the sweet sixteen. I expect that there are a lot of folks posting to the Hoopgurlz website who believe they could have coached CP to the sweet sixteen with their eyes shut. Oklahoma's best hope for 2009 is that graduation will bring the rest of the field back to them. Graduation will help, but not that much, and OK will still fall short of a Final Four.

Duke - Duke has all of the ingredients for a Final Four team - minimal graduation losses (Wanisha Smith and Emily Waner), a well balanced group of talented returning lettermen and a strong incoming class of freshmen. On the other hand, that's pretty much what they had this year when they were bounced in the sweet sixteen. This team has elite level talent, but I don't know that the coaching is strong enough to carry them beyond the round of eight.

So that's it - UConn, Rutgers, Stanford and Maryland. Feel free to jump in and offer other insights, but if you have nothing more to offer than predictions of your favorite team being undefeated forever, maybe you should just grab a cold beer and chill out for a while.

I think you underestimate what the loss of Wiggins will mean to Stanford. I would say at least a year to regroup than make a run in Appels senior year.

Rutgers is also loosing two key pieces of the puzzle. Prince will have to change her role and become the #1 offensive threat on the team. Lots a freshman with big credentials have to learn to take supporting roles. The team should be good but I'd have to see how this team comes together.

I don't see Maryland being any better next year. Without the will to play defense its hard to make the final 4.

[ClayKallam]

Oklahoma has everyone back ... and the Sooners only need one thing: perimeter shooting.

Jenna Plumley made her threes two years ago and didn't last year; Sherri Coale's plan B was Jenny Vining, a freshman who was a spectacular long range shooter in high school, but Vining couldn't make a shot.

Danielle Robinson wasn't a shooter but there was a slight hope that she'd develop -- didn't happen.

If one of those three comes through from outside next year, Oklahoma will be much better, and the Sooners were pretty good already. If two of them two, and no one gets hurt, pencil in the Final Four.

[Sam]

Brooklyn - I agree with everything you say, but if not Stanford, Rutgers or Maryland, then who? It's easy enough to find some fault with any team, but do you see three other teams with fewer weaknesses than these?

Clay - As always, I appreciate your insightful comments. I'm not a big OK fan, but I'd like to see CP make at least one final four in her career. She puts out every game and I think she's earned it. Guess I'm just concerned that there's something deeper wrong with a team that's progressed no further than this one has in three years. Maybe, as you suggest, it's just the lack of an outside game and that could be rectified this year. In any case, OK is just one of two teams that will start the season with an elite player who dictates the nature of the game. Perhaps another Parker/Wiggins/Fowles will emerge - any speculation as to who that might be?

[fhire]

Oklahoma has everyone back ... and the Sooners only need one thing: perimeter shooting.

Jenna Plumley made her threes two years ago and didn't last year; Sherri Coale's plan B was Jenny Vining, a freshman who was a spectacular long range shooter in high school, but Vining couldn't make a shot.

Danielle Robinson wasn't a shooter but there was a slight hope that she'd develop -- didn't happen.

If one of those three comes through from outside next year, Oklahoma will be much better, and the Sooners were pretty good already. If two of them two, and no one gets hurt, pencil in the Final Four.

As I stated on the other thread they have the most dominate player in college basketball CP and the shooters just didn't come thru last year. Well, I think those kids along with newcomers Hartman and Hand will sure up the perimeter shooting problem next year. Defensively they will be long and rebound everything in site. You don't get defeated very often if the opponet only gets 1 shot. Furthermore, with Okl playing matchup often once they outlet to Robinson no ones catching her. Lastly, the country other than UConn has come back to them as far as talent. Hell they might even play UConn in the Nat. Championship and it might not be a bad game to watch! Seriously

[teammom4]

the final four...but Sports Center just said that Geno said that Pat Summitt was to scared to come out and say she cancelled their series because she said UConn was cheating (recruiting) in a press conference. I think most of us knew it, but with ESPN reporting that, I wonder if PS will comment now.

[connboy]

Not likely!

[fhire]

What do the last 2 post have to do with the Final 4 of 09??? Stay on task people!!!

[BrooklynSaints]

Brooklyn - I agree with everything you say, but if not Stanford, Rutgers or Maryland, then who? It's easy enough to find some fault with any team, but do you see three other teams with fewer weaknesses than these?



I don't believe anyone can give a definitive answer to that question. The picking of Stanford, Rutgers & Maryland is based on this years success. I think there will be a number of teams which will compete for the final 4. No clear winner at the start of the season. Thats actually a good thing for the sport.

[Sam]

No one can give definitive answers about the future...not even Connboy. The pleasure of the discussion is to give a reasoned analysis of the situation and see where that leads you. In my analysis, I began with the top eight teams from 2008 and added two others that I thought deserved consideration based on the depth of returning talent. Assessing those 10 teams, it was my conclusion that UConn, Stanford, Rutgers and Maryland were the most likely teams to make it to the 2009 final four. Clay presented a rational argument in favor of Oklahoma. His reasoning was sound but in this case, I tend to give more weight to historical performance than to perceived talent. Neither of us is "right" or "wrong", but we achieved different conclusions on the basis of different assumptions and it is the debate of those assumptions that is interesting. And in the process, we each might learn something more about the game that will make it more interesting to watch. As a consequence of Clay's comments, I will be much more attuned to the progress of OK's three point game rather than simply focusing on CP's continued double-double streak. So please speak up and offer something insightful for me to digest. I am not offended by a difference of opinion, but am by a lack of reason.

[fhire]

the final four...but Sports Center just said that Geno said that Pat Summitt was to scared to come out and say she cancelled their series because she said UConn was cheating (recruiting) in a press conference. I think most of us knew it, but with ESPN reporting that, I wonder if PS will comment now.

Not likely!

I don't believe anyone can give a definitive answer to that question. The picking of Stanford, Rutgers & Maryland is based on this years success. I think there will be a number of teams which will compete for the final 4. No clear winner at the start of the season. Thats actually a good thing for the sport.

We are having fun sharing our views with each of coarse no one knows for certain but it negates the thread if we don't debate and share our views.
Having said that my analysis UCONN will win 2009 and 2010 to deep to talented to much to ask for anyone to beat them in a money game!

[Sam]

I'll give you 2009...as you say, UConn is just too deep and experienced for anyone else this year. But I'm going to hold judgment on 2010 - Tennessee's '07 and '08 signing classes will be sophomores and juniors and should be competitive with UConn and there's just no telling who else might emerge in the next year, or for that matter, what toll injuries might take. So now the pressure is on - UConn has the most talent, the most experience and the best player - all they have to do is go out and beat everyone else every time out and they'll just about meet fan expectations.

[giraffespots2323]

Oklahoma has everyone back ... and the Sooners only need one thing: perimeter shooting.

Jenna Plumley made her threes two years ago and didn't last year; Sherri Coale's plan B was Jenny Vining, a freshman who was a spectacular long range shooter in high school, but Vining couldn't make a shot.

Danielle Robinson wasn't a shooter but there was a slight hope that she'd develop -- didn't happen.

If one of those three comes through from outside next year, Oklahoma will be much better, and the Sooners were pretty good already. If two of them two, and no one gets hurt, pencil in the Final Four.

Oklahoma has Whitney Hand coming in this year along with Jasmine Hartman. I don't know much about Hartman, but Hand is supposed to be a sharpshooter from 3pt range (she beat Jason Terry of the Mavericks in a 3pt contest at her high school). I hope so. And, I do think Robinson is working on her long range shot, but I don't think they will rely on her for that too much. I just hope Vining finds her shot, she was under alot of pressure last year (from fans).

[Oldschool]

I think you underestimate what the loss of Wiggins will mean to Stanford. I would say at least a year to regroup than make a run in Appels senior year.

Rutgers is also loosing two key pieces of the puzzle. Prince will have to change her role and become the #1 offensive threat on the team. Lots a freshman with big credentials have to learn to take supporting roles. The team should be good but I'd have to see how this team comes together.

I don't see Maryland being any better next year. Without the will to play defense its hard to make the final 4.

I agree that Maryland needs to learn how to play defense, but they do have a good nucleus returning. They also have underused Drey Mingo, who will be a sophomore next year, and by the way, was a McDonalds All American. Also Dee Liles, JUCO player of the year coming in, along with Kizer. Combine that with some highly rated players who missed last year due to injury, Maryland could and should be very good.

[fhire]

Oklahoma has Whitney Hand coming in this year along with Jasmine Hartman. I don't know much about Hartman, but Hand is supposed to be a sharpshooter from 3pt range (she beat Jason Terry of the Mavericks in a 3pt contest at her high school). I hope so. And, I do think Robinson is working on her long range shot, but I don't think they will rely on her for that too much. I just hope Vining finds her shot, she was under alot of pressure last year (from fans).

Hand is the real deal she shoots the basketball as well as puts it on the ground and finish in a crowd. Hartman is great ball handler good combo guard will provide depth in that guard core. If the Sooners in fact move to more 4 out CP3 in they'll improve in money games they have the weapons.
Possible Group
Pg. Plumbley -shooter and penetrator gr8 court vision
Sg.Robinson- Slasher tempo kid fullcourt/primary guard defender
Sf Hand - Spot up shooter size on the back line of the match-up zone or 2-3 would be very good in the press game
PF Thompson gr8 slasher especially from the baseline and would kill flashing to the foul line for shots, drive opps and feeding the beast
C. CP3 the most dominant player in college basketball in my opinion good enough to make the Olympic team. In this package she would have more 1-1 opps and the only thing you could do is foul her

If this group or some package close to were used more the Sooner would be an even tuffer out and it would compliment their more traditional UCLA cut offensive group incorporating both Paris twins. I will waffle on my earlier prediction of UCONN v Tenny for the chip here is the Final 4 and the games

UConn vs Duke winner UCONN
Tenny v Oklahoma winner Oklahoma
NC Game UCONN v Oklahoma

Nat. Champion: UCONN

[Sam]

...there's just no way that Tennessee will make the final four unless a bunch of other teams fold. The issue is not talent, it's experience. And while the Lady Vols will be gaining experience with what is annually one of the toughest schedules in the country, they're going to be losing more than the usual number of games along the way. This will cost them the favorable seeding they traditionally have and, while they might be one of the best eight teams by the end of the season, they might not be one of the top eight seeded teams in the tournament, based on their entire body of work. If they come into the tournament as a 3 or 4 seed, the road to the final four will have a few more bumps. Facing a 16 seed and an 8 seed to get to the sweet sixteen as a number 1 is not the same as going through a 13 and a 5 as a number 4. And that, ultimately, will be the Lady Vols undoing. It's just too much to expect of a freshman/sophomore team unless that team has an obvious Parker, Moore, Taurasi or Holdsclaw in waiting, and Tennessee doesn't have that.

[fhire]

...there's just no way that Tennessee will make the final four unless a bunch of other teams fold. The issue is not talent, it's experience. And while the Lady Vols will be gaining experience with what is annually one of the toughest schedules in the country, they're going to be losing more than the usual number of games along the way. This will cost them the favorable seeding they traditionally have and, while they might be one of the best eight teams by the end of the season, they might not be one of the top eight seeded teams in the tournament, based on their entire body of work. If they come into the tournament as a 3 or 4 seed, the road to the final four will have a few more bumps. Facing a 16 seed and an 8 seed to get to the sweet sixteen as a number 1 is not the same as going through a 13 and a 5 as a number 4. And that, ultimately, will be the Lady Vols undoing. It's just too much to expect of a freshman/sophomore team unless that team has an obvious Parker, Moore, Taurasi or Holdsclaw in waiting, and Tennessee doesn't have that.

You maybe right but usually Tenny better is better than everyone elses better! So even thou they are in reloading mode they still have great talent that will play together all summer and fall and be right there as usual. See I believe even the power conferences are in a down cycle so maybe we could get fresh blood in the FF like lets say Xavier, Louisville, Syracuse, Rutgers, Marist or Ariz. St name a few. But none of those teams strike me as being better than Tenny possible exception maybe Syracuse.